Snowpack and fuel moisture tell the early story
Wildfire risk in western North America begins taking shape months before the first major fire. The key leading indicators are winter snowpack depth, spring fuel moisture content, and drought conditions. Below-average snowpack means earlier snowmelt, a longer period of dry conditions, and fuels that are available to burn earlier in the season.
The US Drought Monitor shows persistent moderate-to-severe drought across portions of the southwestern states, southern Rockies, and parts of the Pacific Northwest as of mid-April 2026. While conditions vary significantly by region, the overall pattern suggests fuel conditions will be receptive to ignition earlier than the 30-year average in several key fire-prone regions.
What satellite data shows right now
MODIS and VIIRS active fire detections for the continental US during the first two weeks of April show a scattered pattern typical of early spring: prescribed burns in the southeastern US, agricultural burning in the central states, and isolated wildfire starts in the Southwest where drought conditions are most advanced.
None of the current detections represent major wildfire events, but the pattern provides a baseline. As temperatures rise through May and June and fine fuels cure (dry out), the same landscape conditions that currently support manageable fires will support much more intense fire behavior. The transition from spring fire season to summer fire season is gradual but can accelerate rapidly during prolonged heat events.
NIFC predictive services outlook
The National Interagency Fire Center issues monthly significant wildland fire potential outlooks that integrate drought data, climate forecasts, fuel conditions, and fire weather projections. These outlooks provide the most authoritative assessment of where and when above-normal fire activity is expected.
For the upcoming months, areas of concern typically include the Southwest (transitioning into peak fire season in May-June), California and Oregon (grass fire risk in spring, transitioning to brush and timber fire risk in summer), and the Great Basin (cheatgrass-driven fire risk peaking in June-July). Conditions in any given year can depart from these climatological patterns depending on late-season precipitation and temperature anomalies.
Monitoring tools for tracking wildfire season development
Multiple data sources allow users to track wildfire season as it develops. The FIRMS fire map provides daily global fire detection data from MODIS and VIIRS. InciWeb tracks active incident status for managed wildfires and prescribed fires. The US Drought Monitor updates weekly. RAWS (Remote Automated Weather Stations) provide real-time fuel moisture and fire weather observations at locations throughout the wildland fire environment.
PlanetSentry displays wildfire events from EONET as they develop, providing a global context that shows how North American fire activity compares to activity on other continents. During peak fire season, the globe can simultaneously show active wildfires in California, Siberia, the Amazon, and Australia — illustrating the global scale of wildfire as a recurring natural process.